[니켈] Sumitomo Metal Mining, 26년 니켈 시장 전망 (수요 3.5백만톤, 공급 3.8백만톤, 과잉공급 26만톤)

🌏한줄 인사이트🌏
니켈 시장은 인도네시아발 공급 확대에 힘입어 2026년까지 3년 연속 공급 과잉이 이어질 전망이며, 스테인리스 수요는 안정적이나 LFP 확산으로 배터리용 니켈 수요 증가는 둔화되어 가격 반등 압력이 제한될 것으로 보인다.
===========================

출처 : Mining.com (2025.10.7.)

The global nickel market is expected to remain in surplus next year for a third consecutive year due to Indonesia’s continued output growth, Japan’s top nickel smelter Sumitomo Metal Mining (SMM) said on Tuesday.


The surplus is projected at 256,000 metric tons in 2026, slightly below 263,000 tons this year, as Indonesia’s production of low-grade nickel pig iron is forecast to rise 4.1% to 1.76 million tons, SMM said in its half-year market outlook presentation.

Indonesia’s nickel pig iron production is seen jumping 10.3% in 2025.

Global nickel demand is forecast to grow 2.4% year-on-year to 3.52 million tons in 2026, supported by steady stainless steel consumption, while supply is seen rising 2.0% to 3.78 million tons, according to SMM.

The forecast assumes no significant impact from US tariffs on demand as there has been limited effect so far this year, Shirou Imai, SMM’s general manager, told reporters.

“Demand growth will be driven by stainless steel, similar to 2025, while demand for batteries will likely stay slow, with growth rate expected to be modest,” Imai said.

Nickel is primarily used in stainless steel, but is also a key component in lithium-ion batteries that power electric vehicles (EVs).

However, demand growth has slowed as lithium-iron-phosphate (LFP) batteries, which are cheaper and contain no nickel or cobalt, gain market share, accounting for two-thirds of EV sales in China in 2023, according to the International Energy Agency.

SMM, which supplies cathode materials for Panasonic lithium-ion batteries used in Tesla EVs, expects global nickel demand for batteries to rise to 470,000 tons next year(전체 니켈 수요(3.52백만톤)의 13%), up only 10,000 tons from 2025.

“Demand for nickel-rich conventional EV batteries is likely to pick up over the longer term as China is restricting on exporting LFP technology,” Imai said.