🌏한줄 인사이트🌏
INSG는 인도네시아 규제 강화에도 불구하고 니켈 생산 증가세가 이어져 2026년까지 공급 과잉이 확대될 것으로 전망했으며, 이는 배터리 수요 부진과 맞물려 니켈 가격 하방 압력을 더욱 키울 수 있습니다.
===========================
출처 : INSG (2025.10.7.)
INSG OCTOBER 2025 MEETINGS
The International Nickel Study Group (INSG) held meetings on 6 October 2025. Government and
industry representatives from member countries, observers and several international organizations
participated in the meetings and extensively discussed current nickel market trends.
Nickel Market Observations for 2025 and 2026
Global growth was stronger than expected in early 2025, supported by AI-related investment in the
United States, fiscal stimulus in China, and front-loading of trade ahead of tariff hikes, but is projected to slow down in 2026. Going forward, tariffs may impact trade, investment, labour markets, and prices. On the positive side, financial conditions have eased and inflation is set to decline across most G20 economies.
Even though Indonesia, the world's leading nickel producer, has recently intensified efforts to more strictly control its mining sector, including delaying the issuance of mining permits (RKABs), seizing lands for lacking forestry permits and sanctioning companies because of lack of reclamation and post-mining guarantees, the impact on nickel feed has been temporary or limited and the output of different types of nickel product is anticipated to continue to increase in both 2025 and 2026.
The INSG forecasts continued growth in the stainless steel sector through 2025 and 2026.
However, the expansion of nickel use in batteries has progressed more slowly than expected, reflecting the rising share of non-nickel chemistries (particularly lithium iron phosphate) and stronger demand for plug-in hybrid EVs at the expense of battery EVs.
In China, the trend of falling NPI production and rising cathode output is forecast to continue. Nickel
sulphate production will ease in 2025 on softer battery demand, but a recovery is projected for 2026.
Elsewhere, largely as a result of profitability challenges, several facilities across different countries have either suspended operations, reduced output, or are considering the possibility of doing so in the future.
World primary nickel production was 3.365Mt in 2023 and 3.531Mt in 2024 and is forecast to reach
3.810Mt in 2025 and 4.085Mt(+7.2%) in 2026. The estimates do not include an adjustment factor for possible production disruptions.
World primary nickel usage was 3.190Mt in 2023 and 3.419Mt in 2024, and is forecast to increase to
3.601Mt in 2025 and to 3.824Mt(+6.1%) in 2026.
The implicit market balances are therefore surpluses of 176kt in 2023, 112kt in 2024, 209kt in 2025, and 261kt(+24%) in 2026.
